標(biāo)題: 國(guó)內(nèi)手機(jī)業(yè)面臨“缺芯”困境 [打印本頁] 作者: 科技Party 時(shí)間: 2023-4-5 23:49 標(biāo)題: 國(guó)內(nèi)手機(jī)業(yè)面臨“缺芯”困境 Tang Qi, a former phone dealer in Huaqiangbei, one of China’s largest smartphone grey markets in Shenzhen, has witnessed the ups and downs of the handset industry. But one thing is certain: business has always hinged on semiconductor chips.
深圳華強(qiáng)北是全球最大的智能手機(jī)灰色市場(chǎng)之一，前手機(jī)經(jīng)銷商唐奇見證了該行業(yè)的起起落落。但有一件事是肯定的：業(yè)務(wù)好壞始終取決于半導(dǎo)體芯片。
Now, with the golden years of globalisation seemingly in the rear view, the country’s mobile phone industry is caught in the middle of a tech war that has seen the US and its allies ban exports of semiconductors used to power advanced smartphones, leaving the outlook far from certain.
當(dāng)前，全球化的黃金歲月似乎已悄然逝去，美國(guó)及其盟友禁止出口先進(jìn)的智能手機(jī)芯片，中國(guó)手機(jī)行業(yè)深受影響，未來蒙上了一層陰影。
From the turn of the century well into the 2010s, Huaqiangbei – an electronics district of 1.45 sq km (0.56 square miles) in the heart of Shenzhen – was the city’s most prosperous area. The latest mobile phones – genuine, smuggled or knock-off – could usually be found there, before being shipped all over the world.
從世紀(jì)之交到2010年代，位于深圳市中心、面積1.45 平方公里的華強(qiáng)北是這座城市最繁華的地區(qū)。無論是正品、水貨還是山寨機(jī)，在這里都可以找到，然后再運(yùn)往世界各地。
Its fate, however, shows what can happen when access to high-end semiconductor chips becomes more difficult and domestic innovation falters.
然而，華強(qiáng)北的興衰表明，當(dāng)獲得高端芯片日益困難且國(guó)內(nèi)創(chuàng)新步履蹣跚時(shí)會(huì)發(fā)生什么。
“Before 2004, there were no counterfeit phones on the market,” Tang said. “Counterfeiting and knock-offs started to flourish in 2005 when MediaTek offered chips integrated with software, which made counterfeit mobile production easy.”
唐說，“在 2004 年之前，市場(chǎng)上沒有山寨機(jī)。2005 年，當(dāng)聯(lián)發(fā)科開始提供軟件集成芯片時(shí)，山寨機(jī)開始盛行?！?br />
MediaTek, a Taiwan-based semiconductor design company, opened its technology to mainland China in 2003 amid warmer ties across the Taiwan Strait. In 2007, it joined the Google-led Open Handset Alliance with more than 80 global hardware manufacturers, software developers and telecoms operators to develop the Android system.
臺(tái)灣半導(dǎo)體設(shè)計(jì)公司聯(lián)發(fā)科2003年在兩岸關(guān)系升溫之際向大陸開放技術(shù)，2007年加入谷歌主導(dǎo)的開放手機(jī)聯(lián)盟，聯(lián)合全球80多家硬件制造商、軟件開發(fā)商和電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商共同開發(fā)安卓系統(tǒng)。
Access to the chip technology and operating system created opportunities for Chinese manufacturers, many of whom already provided components to big name foreign brands like Motorola and Nokia under original equipment manufacturer (OEM) agreements, to make their own phones. But the technology also led to a flourishing counterfeit market.
獲得芯片技術(shù)和操作系統(tǒng)為中國(guó)制造商創(chuàng)造了機(jī)會(huì)，其中許多制造商已經(jīng)根據(jù)原始設(shè)備制造商協(xié)議向摩托羅拉和諾基亞等知名外國(guó)品牌供貨。但這也導(dǎo)致了繁榮的山寨市場(chǎng)。
According to Tang, tiny companies in Guangdong would buy a MediaTek chip loaded with software, source other components, and ask a factory to assemble them.
廣東的小公司會(huì)??購(gòu)買裝有軟件的聯(lián)發(fā)科芯片，并采購(gòu)其他組件，請(qǐng)工廠組裝。
“More than 80 per cent of the counterfeit mobile phones used MediaTek chips,” he said. “The only other things needed are a battery and a cover to make a phone labelled and to look like a Samsung or a Sony.”
唐說，“超過80%的山寨品使用聯(lián)發(fā)科芯片。只需換上電池和外殼，讓它看起來像三星或索尼。”
During the heydays of his business, Tang had 20 Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machines, producing all kinds of covers day and night for counterfeiting and knock-offs.
生意最好的時(shí)候，唐擁有20臺(tái)數(shù)控機(jī)床，夜以繼日地生產(chǎn)各種手機(jī)外殼。
Once home to tens of thousands of electronics companies, Huaqiangbei saw annual turnover top 120 billion yuan (US$17.4 billion) at its peak, between 2009 and 2011, the Shenzhen Economic Daily reported.
2009-2011年，華強(qiáng)北坐擁數(shù)萬家電子公司，年?duì)I業(yè)額達(dá)到1200億元人民幣。
In May 2010, monthly rental for a ground-floor shop in Huaqiangbei could cost more than 3,000 yuan per square metre – at a time when the city’s top luxury malls could only charge a few hundred yuan per square metre.
2010年5月，華強(qiáng)北底層商鋪月租金高達(dá)每平方米3000元。相比之下，當(dāng)時(shí)深圳頂級(jí)購(gòu)物中心租金只有幾百元。
However, the counterfeit mobile phone business began declining in 2012 because MediaTek’s chips could not match the technical prowess of the latest generation of smartphones, like Apple’s iPhone and Samsung’s Galaxy.
然而，山寨業(yè)務(wù)在2012年開始下滑，因?yàn)槁?lián)發(fā)科芯片無法匹配蘋果iPhone和三星Galaxy等最新一代智能手機(jī)。
“The chip, the core component of the latest generation of smartphones, became hard to copy, the copycat businesses just died away, as they could no longer replicate the high-end technology and sell it cheaply,” he said.
“芯片是最新一代智能手機(jī)的核心部件，難以仿制。山寨企業(yè)無法再?gòu)?fù)制高端技術(shù)并以低價(jià)出售，只能走向消亡?！?br />
The global smartphone market has in recent years been marked by periods of turbulence, most notably due to a shortage of chips, which China must import to power its high-end handsets. There are also concerns that domestic component suppliers could lose orders with multinationals, who are looking to diversify away from China amid heightened geopolitical tensions between Beijing and Washington.
近年來，全球智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)歷了一段時(shí)期的動(dòng)蕩，最直接的原因是芯片短缺，而中國(guó)必須進(jìn)口芯片制造高端手機(jī)。在北京和華盛頓地緣政治緊張局勢(shì)加劇的情況下，跨國(guó)公司正尋求將業(yè)務(wù)遷出中國(guó)，外界擔(dān)心國(guó)內(nèi)零部件供應(yīng)商可能會(huì)失去跨國(guó)公司的訂單。
Chips have emerged as a key battleground in the US-China tech war, because they power everything from electric vehicles to space shuttles. The US is choking China’s access to both semiconductor chips and the equipment producing them, allying with the Netherlands, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to restrict exports to the mainland.
芯片已成為美中科技戰(zhàn)的關(guān)鍵戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)，電動(dòng)汽車、航天飛機(jī)等關(guān)鍵行業(yè)都離不開芯片。美國(guó)正在阻止中國(guó)獲取半導(dǎo)體芯片及生產(chǎn)設(shè)備，與荷蘭、日本、韓國(guó)和臺(tái)灣結(jié)盟以限制對(duì)大陸的出口。
Last year, Apple revealed its intention to move parts of its manufacturing process out of China and into emerging markets such as India and Vietnam after experiencing stringent Covid-19 curbs in mainland China.
去年，蘋果公司透露，在經(jīng)歷了嚴(yán)格的疫情限制措施后，打算將部分生產(chǎn)線轉(zhuǎn)移到印度和越南等新興市場(chǎng)。
Apple’s major contractor, Taiwan-based Foxconn, has recently announced plans to create a major new factory in Vietnam after investing US$500 million in its Indian subsidiary last year. Foxconn’s Zhengzhou factory in the central province of Henan is the world’s largest iPhone assembly site, hiring as many as 300,000 employees and accounting for 50 to 60 per cent of Foxconn’s global iPhone assembly capacity.
蘋果公司的主要承包商、總部位于臺(tái)灣的富士康，去年向其印度子公司投資5億美元，最近又宣布計(jì)劃在越南新建一家大型工廠。富士康位于河南省的鄭州工廠是全球最大的iPhone組裝基地，擁有30萬名員工，占富士康全球 iPhone組裝產(chǎn)能的50%-60%。
Nevertheless, Tang remains optimistic.“The shifting of the industrial chain overseas has not been as easy as imagined, and most of the deep-processed raw materials are re-exported from China,” Tang said.
盡管如此，唐依舊保持樂觀?！爱a(chǎn)業(yè)鏈向海外轉(zhuǎn)移并沒有想象中那么容易，大部分深加工原材料都是從中國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)口。”
“If the yield rate of high-end mobile phones produced in India and Vietnam is now about 50 or 60 per cent, it has to be increased by 200 per cent to approach the current yield rate of Chinese factories. This is a long process, which is why Apple is currently unable to leave China for the production of its latest iPhone series.”
“現(xiàn)在印度和越南生產(chǎn)的高端手機(jī)良品率在50%、60%左右，要接近中國(guó)工廠目前的良品率，還得提高200%。這是一個(gè)漫長(zhǎng)的過程，也是蘋果目前無法離開中國(guó)生產(chǎn)最新iPhone的原因?！?br />
Chinese companies with operations in India will still play a key role in Apple’s plan to make some iPhones in the country, The New York Times reported in September last year. In Chennai, India, subsidiaries of Chinese companies will supply chargers and other components for iPhones, the newspaper reported, citing people familiar with the situation.
《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》去年9月報(bào)道，在印度開展業(yè)務(wù)的中國(guó)公司仍將在蘋果轉(zhuǎn)移iPhone生產(chǎn)線的計(jì)劃中發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用。該報(bào)援引知情人士的話報(bào)道稱，在印度金奈，中國(guó)企業(yè)的子公司將為iPhone供應(yīng)充電器等零部件。
Zeng Liaoyuan, an associate professor of information and communication engineering at the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China in Chengdu, said difficulties for Chinese manufacturers will soon arrive and last for at least two decades before China can successfully madek advanced chips on its own.
電子科技大學(xué)信息與通信工程專業(yè)曾副教授表示，中國(guó)制造商的困難很快就會(huì)到來，而且至少會(huì)持續(xù)二十年，中國(guó)才能自主制造先進(jìn)芯片。
“There have been talks [among academics] about changing the arena of competition [with the US]. In the manufacturing area, however, there’s no sector which can bypass chips,” Zeng said.“Crucial to the colossal telecoms industries and digital economy, China cannot abandon the smartphone sector. Only by motivating scientists, researchers and engineers to make innovations, will China be able to grasp chip-making technologies.”
“[學(xué)術(shù)界]一直在討論改變[與美國(guó)]的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)領(lǐng)域。然而，在制造領(lǐng)域，沒有一個(gè)行業(yè)可以繞過芯片。芯片對(duì)于龐大的電信行業(yè)和數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)至關(guān)重要。中國(guó)不能放棄智能手機(jī)行業(yè)，只有激勵(lì)科學(xué)家、研究人員和工程師進(jìn)行創(chuàng)新，才能掌握芯片制造技術(shù)?！?br />
Chinese companies will face an “innovate or die” situation amid fierce competition in 5G generation, a spokesman from one Chinese firm under US sanctions told the Post.
一家受美國(guó)制裁的中國(guó)公司表示，在5G時(shí)代的激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中，中國(guó)公司將面臨“要么創(chuàng)新，要么消亡”的局面。
John Kou, a veteran electronic engineer in his early 50s in Shenzhen, said China’s whole electronics sector would suffer if foreign high-end smartphone makers continue to diversify.
50歲出頭的深圳資深電子工程師 John Kou 表示，如果外國(guó)高端手機(jī)制造商繼續(xù)實(shí)施供應(yīng)鏈多元化戰(zhàn)略，中國(guó)整個(gè)電子行業(yè)都會(huì)受到影響。
“Brands like Apple have actually driven the upgrading of China’s electronics industry chain over the years,” he said. “They set high process requirements, whether it is electronic components or screen glass. To secure their orders, Chinese factories are incentivised to invest into upgrading their production lines and training the workforce. If the foreign brands relocate abroad, China’s domestic demand alone is not enough to generate support for R&D and production of the next generation of high-end electronic products.”
“多年來，像蘋果這樣的品牌實(shí)際上帶動(dòng)了中國(guó)電子產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的升級(jí)。他們對(duì)工藝提出了很高的要求，無論是電子元件還是屏幕玻璃。為了保住訂單，中國(guó)工廠不得不投資升級(jí)生產(chǎn)線、培訓(xùn)勞動(dòng)力。如果跨國(guó)品牌搬遷到國(guó)外，單靠中國(guó)內(nèi)需不足以支撐下一代高端電子產(chǎn)品的研發(fā)與生產(chǎn)?！?br />
Liu Kaiming, head of the Institute of Contemporary Observation in Guangdong, attributed China’s rise as the world’s smartphone manufacturing hub to its complete supply chain, the existence of a large number of skilled workers and a huge domestic market.
廣東當(dāng)代社會(huì)觀察研究所所長(zhǎng)劉開明表示，中國(guó)之所以能崛起為世界智能手機(jī)制造中心，原因在于其完整的供應(yīng)鏈、大量熟練工人和巨大的國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)。
“The maturity of the supply chain is the biggest advantage of Chinese mobile phone manufacturing, and leaving China to reset the supply chain is actually a huge cost increase for brands,” said Liu, whose institute has been supervising supply chains in hundreds of OEM companies in China for two decades.
“供應(yīng)鏈的成熟度是中國(guó)手機(jī)制造業(yè)的最大優(yōu)勢(shì)，將供應(yīng)鏈遷出中國(guó)將導(dǎo)致成本大幅上升?！?br />
However, geopolitical changes are affecting the economic dynamics. As mobile phones are crucial to the ecology of China’s electronics industry, China should try to minimise political differences and maintain friendly trade relations with most countries, Liu said.
然而，地緣政治變化正在影響經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)態(tài)。劉說，由于手機(jī)對(duì)我國(guó)電子產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)至關(guān)重要，應(yīng)盡量減少政治分歧，與大多數(shù)國(guó)家保持友好貿(mào)易關(guān)系。
“Southeast Asia is emerging as a new global manufacturing centre. China should use the established economic relationship with Southeast Asian countries to jointly build a supply chain with complementary advantages, synergistic efficiency, and mutual benefits,” he said.
“東南亞正在成為新的全球制造中心。中國(guó)應(yīng)利用與東南亞國(guó)家已建立的經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系，共同打造優(yōu)勢(shì)互補(bǔ)、效率協(xié)同、互利共贏的供應(yīng)鏈?！?br />
As of today, 90 per cent of Apple’s latest iPhones shipments are still made in China, Liu said, adding whether it is India or Vietnam, there is still no capacity for mass production of new iPhones elsewhere.
到目前為止，90%的最新款iPhone仍在中國(guó)制造。無論是印度還是越南，依舊沒有形成大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)能力。
But that could all change in three years’ time, with maybe 30 per cent of such production shifted from China, he said.
然而，三年后情況可能發(fā)生劇變，或有高達(dá)30%的產(chǎn)能離開中國(guó)。